New YouGov poll for Sky News
- Catch up on the day's politics news with our 10pm bulletin
- Labour on course for best-ever election result
- 'Real collapse' in Tory support after 'uplift' for Reform
- Top Tories tipped to lose - with more than half of cabinet at risk
- Look up the projected result where you live
- Sam Coates:Tory wipeout on the cards in multiple regions
- Sky News Daily:What could change before election day?
Other election news
- PM welcomes fall in inflation
- More polls project huge Tory losses
- Police officer in Sunak's close protection team arrested
- Lib Dem leader opens up about caring for late mother and teen son
- Latest manifestos:Sinn Fein|SNP|Workers Party
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- Read more:Who is standing down?|Key seats to watch|What counts as voter ID?|Check if your constituency is changing|Guide to election lingo|Sky's election night plans
It's 10pm and here's your rundown of the day.
It's been a day of manifesto launches and another YouGov poll for Sky News has projected Labour is on course for its best-ever election result - and the Tories set for their worst since 1906.
Here are the main things you need to know:
- The poll projects Labour will win a historic majority of 200 with 425 seats, more than double the 202 won in 2019;
- While the Tories would slump to their lowest number of parliamentary seats since the party's formation with 108, down from the 365 won in 2019;
- Some 15 out of 28 Tory cabinet members still standing in the election are projected to lose, includingChancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, and Commons leader Penny Mordaunt.
- The Liberal Democrats would win 67 seats under the projection, the SNP 20, Plaid Cymru four and the Greens two;
- Nigel Farage's Reform UK is on course to win five seats, with the party leader becoming an MP for the first time after winning Clacton;
- History teaches us polls tend to narrow during election campaigns, but Patrick English, director of political analytics at YouGov, says "we're just not seeing that at the moment".
- A police officer in Rishi Sunak's close protection team has been arrested and suspended over alleged bets about the timing of the general election.
- We had an in-depth interview with Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey, who discussed topics taking in migration, Brexit and social care, and his experience looking after his son;
- The SNP's economy spokesperson also told Sophy Ridge the party is "fighting for every vote" in response to the YouGov projection showing the party would lose half of its seats;
- TheSNP launched its manifestowith a promise to continue its quest for another independence referendum, which the party claims could pave the way for Scotland to rejoin the EU;
- Sinn Fein launched its manifesto, as did George Galloway's Workers Party of Britain.
- Inflation falling back to the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time in three years has been welcomed by Rishi Sunak, but Sir Keir Starmer said people's lives wouldn't "suddenly get easier;
- The prime minister and Labour leader condemned Just Stop Oil members spraying Stonehenge with orange paint;
- Sir Keir'swife also said a protest outside their house - which involved a banner saying "Starmer stop the killing" in reference to the war in Gaza - made her feel "a bit sick".
On today's Sky News Daily podcast, Niall Paterson analyses the implications of today’s poll with our deputy political editor Sam Coates, while Sky’s political correspondent Tamara Cohen joins us from Edinburgh where she was at the launch of the SNP manifesto.
That's all for today
Thank you for following our coverage of the day's political events.
See our 10pm bulletin for the key points from today.
Join us again tomorrow from 7am for the latest updates.
Party leaders go head to head in popularity poll - and one candidate dominates
Earlier, YouGov pollsters asked 2,238 people how they felt about various party leaders - and who would make the prime minister.
In a series of head to heads, Sir Keir Starmer came ahead of all the other leaders.
He beat Rishi Sunak by 41 points to 21 points, Nigel Farage by 50 points to 25, and Sir Ed Davey by 40 points to 14.
The rest of the 100% in each case was made up by "don't knows".
Out of the other match-ups, Mr Farage came second in them all - and Mr Sunak lost out to Sir Ed.
Has Rishi Sunak blundered by opting for long, six-week election campaign?
The grim news for the Tories in the latest Sky News/YouGov poll begs another question about Rishi Sunak's political judgement. Was a long election campaign a blunder?
The prime minister is already under fire from Conservative MPs and activists for gambling on an election in July rather than waiting for October or November.
The conventional wisdom was that economic news would be better by the autumn and deportation flights to Rwanda would help stop the boats bringing migrants across the Channel.
But as well as doubts about a July poll, the big slump in Tory support since the last Sky News/YouGov poll on 3 June, suggests a long campaign of six weeks may also have backfired.
On 22 May, the day the prime minister made his shock general election announcement, some veteran Tory MPs privately questioned Mr Sunak's decision to fight a long campaign.
But with the Tories trailing badly behind Labour in the polls for months, Mr Sunak clearly hoped a long election campaign would give his party more time to recover and close the gap.
However, the opposite appears to have happened. As the campaign continues, with polling day still two weeks away, opinion polls are suggesting bigger Conservative losses, not smaller.
Read the full analysis here...
Poll tracker: Where do the parties stand?
Our live poll tracker collates the results of opinion surveys carried out by all the main polling organisations - and allows you to see how the political parties are performing in the run-up to the general election.
Read more about the tracker here.
SNP faces triple whammy of crises and its central goal of independence is at serious risk
By Tamara Cohen, political correspondent
John Swinney has now been on the campaign trail for most of his short time as Scotland's first minister, which began just six weeks ago.
After a turbulent 15 months for the SNP following theresignation of Nicola Sturgeonand thenHumza Yousaf, the party of independence is fighting for its life against a resurgent Labour poised to win back some old heartlands.
For the nationalists, this is existential. Having won 48 seats in the 2019 election, they could -according to today's YouGov poll- end up with just 20 seats.
With many seats too close to call, especially in the tightly-contested central belt, other polls have put the SNP far lower, and that leaves its central goal of independence at serious risk.
Read more below:
Two other polls forecast huge Tory losses
As well as our mammoth YouGov poll projecting 425 seats for Labour and 108 for the Conservatives, two other polls have been released today showing Labour maintaining its comfortable lead.
A poll by More In Common projected a Labour majority of 162, just shy of its 1997 and 2001 landslides, with the Conservatives falling just 155 seats, their worst total since 1906.
High profile losses forecast in the projection include Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.
But the results were the most favourable for the Conservatives of the recent large-scale polls.
Meanwhile a poll by Savantaprojects a drastic result for the Conservatives, with Labour winning 516 seats and the Tories falling to 53 MPs.
It puts Labour 19 percentage points ahead of the Tories, with Labour on 40%, the Tories 21%, Reform 14%, Lib Dems 11%, Green 4%, SNP 3% and other parties 5%.
The More In Common survey forecasts Reform UK winning no seats, with the Tories holding Clacton against Nigel Farage, but the poll is based on data collected between 22 May and 17 June and so includes the period before Mr Farage announced his decision to stand in the seat.
Why don't Sinn Fein sit in parliament?
Sinn Fein were one of the parties to launch their manifesto today - but they don't actually sit in parliament.
Why is that? And what role do they have in the general election?
Our senior Ireland correspondent David Blevins explains:
Lib Dem campaign 'has caught the imagination by being something different'
Our deputy political editorSam Coatespraises Sir Ed Davey for his unique way of getting the Liberal Democrats' policies across.
He says he is able to "knit together a policy programme... that people understand why he cares about it, because he links it back to both his son and his mother who he cared for when he was a teenager".
Sam adds: "I think that relatability, along with the stunts everyone has seen, has been the core of his campaign, and it has caught the imagination by being something different."
He says he wondered what role the Lib Dems would play if there was a huge Labour supermajority, "because they don't feel like they are going to go on the attack, they don't feel like they're going to be particularly pugnacious".
"They're an anti-Tory outfit under this guy, Ed Davey. So what really is their role going to be from 5 July onwards?"
That concludes our coverage of tonight'sPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridge- it'll return tomorrow from 7pm. In the meantime, stick with us here for the latest general election news and analysis.
Which politician would Davey most like to push off a paddleboard?
Ending on a lighter note, Sophy asks Sir Ed which politician he would most like to push off a paddleboard.
"There's just too many they won't fit on," Sir Ed says.
The Liberal Democrat leader has pulled several attention-grabbing stunts during the campaign, including repeatedly tumbling off a paddle board into Lake Windermere… as well as screaming on a rollercoaster, splashing down a waterslide, careening downhill on a bike, tackling an assault course, building sandcastles and competing in wheelbarrow races.
Who deserves a knighthood more?
Sophy asks Sir Ed who deserves a knighthood more, himself or Post Office campaigner Alan Bates, who was knighted in the King's Birthday Honours list last week.
Sir Ed has come under scrutiny for his previous work as the postal affairs minister in light of the scandal.
"I think Alan Bates does," Sir Ed says.
"I'm very proud of my knighthood though, which I was very fortunate to get from her late Majesty because of the work I've done on climate change."
