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Bloomberg exchange-traded fund (ETF) analysts have tipped a 90% chance that the US securities regulator will approve a spot Litecoin ETF before the end of the year. <\/p>\n
Bloomberg’s James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas see its chances of being approved in 2025 as higher than other ETFs currently proposed, including a spot XRP (XRP<\/a>), Solana (SOL<\/a>) and Dogecoin (DOGE<\/a>) ETF — which they see as having a 65%, 70% and 75% chance respectively. <\/p>\n Litecoin (LTC<\/a>), which was created as a faster alternative to Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) in 2011, shares a similar proof-of-work consensus mechanism to Bitcoin. <\/p>\n Posting on X, the pair said<\/a> that Litecoin’s path toward SEC approval may be the most straightforward as S-1 and 19b-4 forms have already been filed and acknowledged, while the SEC also likely views it as a commodity.<\/p>\n List of candidate crypto ETFs vying for SEC approval. Source: <\/em>James Seyffart<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n The race for more crypto ETFs follows strong demand from the spot Bitcoin and Ether (ETH<\/a>) ETFs, which have chalked up $40.7<\/a> billion and $3.18<\/a> billion worth of net inflows since launching in January and July 2024, respectively, Farside Investors data shows.<\/p>\n While Seyffart doesn’t think a Litecoin ETF would attract that much demand, he said it could still be worthwhile for fund companies with as little as $50 million in some cases.<\/p>\n “They don’t have to hit it out of the park on a flows basis to be worthwhile from an issuer perspective,” Seyffart told Cointelegraph.<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Crypto markets tried to stay calm… then Trump happened<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n The final deadline for the SEC to decide on the Litecoin, Solana, XRP and Dogecoin ETFs is between Oct. 2 and Oct. 18, Seyffart’s chart shows. A Litecoin ETF could launch before then, Seyffart said.<\/p>\n Seyffart and Balchunas also acknowledged that ETFs for Hedera (HBAR<\/a>) and Polkadot (DOT<\/a>) had been filed by Canary Capital and 21Shares but have not yet placed any approval odds at the time of writing. <\/p>\n Seyffart said more crypto ETFs could be proposed, too, predicting US-based ETF issuers to follow a “spaghetti cannon approach.”<\/p>\n “Issuers will try to launch many many different things and see what sticks,” Seyffart said.<\/p>\n “You will probably see a long tail of ETFs holding digital assets in the long run and the ones that don’t garner interest or flows will simply liquidate.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Balchunas noted<\/a> that the odds for all of these crypto ETFs — except Litecoin — were below 5% before US President Donald Trump won the US election<\/a> on Nov. 5, 2024.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, questions remain over Solana and XRP’s security status, with Seyffart predicting that an XRP ETF wouldn’t be approved until the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple is fully resolved. <\/p>\n Source: <\/em>James Seyffart<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Ripple scored a partial victory in August 2023, when it was ruled that XRP isn’t a security<\/a> when sold on secondary markets — however, the SEC appealed this court decision<\/a>, claiming that Ripple breached securities laws when it sold XRP to retail investors.<\/p>\n However, these actions were taken under the Gary Gensler-led SEC, and Ripple is now hoping that the new SEC leadership, currently led by acting chair Mark Uyeda, will withdraw the enforcement case.<\/a><\/p>\n The security status of Solana will also need to be resolved<\/a> before the SEC can analyze Solana under a “commodities ETF wrapper,” Seyffart said last month.<\/p>\nExpect to see more crypto ETF filings<\/h2>\n
Regulatory work still needs to be done with XRP, Solana<\/strong><\/h2>\n